Vercel released the numbers from its own gateway, through which tens of trillions of tokens pass. Open models now carry 29 percent of volume, up from 11 in April. Another number is quieter. The price per token stopped falling.
- Per Vercel's data: open models are 29% of tokens in June, against 11% in April.
- Anthropic takes 61% of the money spent on text, but only 32% of the tokens. DeepSeek is third by volume at 22.6%.
- The price per token in June is flat: cheap volume grows, but frontier closed models get about 12% more expensive, and the two cancel out.
The numbers don't come from a survey or an analyst's forecast. They come from Vercel's own gateway - the layer through which other people's apps call the models. This is real production traffic, paid for with real money, for the period through the end of June. That's why it's worth reading closely, not skimming.
Watch where the money goes, not where the tokens go. Open won the volume - the bulk, cheap, repetitive work. But 61 percent of text spend goes to one provider that does only a third of the volume. So the hard stuff is still paid for dearly, and it's paid to a few. The market isn't leveling out. It's splitting into two.
The other number is quieter and more important. The price per token stopped falling. Until now, anyone building on models carried an unspoken assumption in the back of their mind - next year it'll be half the price, let's wait. June says otherwise. Cheap volume pulls the average price down, frontier models get more expensive and push it back up - it comes out even. If your product's math only survives on future price drops, June is the month it stopped working.